🌍🇷🇺 Prigozhin yawa dey cause kasala for Wagner African

DAKAR, Senegal — Di way wey rebellion just waka comot for Russia don dey make many Africa pipu dey scratch head. Dia worry na say di Wagner mercenary group wey many of dia leaders don dey use strong dia hand for power, fit weak or even pack comot, according to people wey sabi di area well well, plus Western officials and sabi people. 🤔🌍🇷🇺

People eye for world just dey focus for di wahala wey dey happen for Russia, where President Vladimir Putin power don dey shake from di short wahala wey Wagner leader, Yevgeniy Prigozhin bring come. But if Kremlin decide to crack down on Wagner, e go get wahala reach Africa and Middle East, because na Wagner been dey give ogbonge power to bad leaders while dem dey push Moscow international agenda. 💣🌏🇷🇺

For Central African Republic and Mali, where Wagner show face pass for Africa, people talk say WhatsApp group chat and weekend talk for dia countries na about di wahala wey go happen for dia area.

“Everybody dey fear,” na wetin one political analyst for Bamako, capital of Mali, talk, but him no want make we call him name, so him fit talk true about di tense situation. “Everybody know say wetin happen for Russia go affect us.” 😨🇲🇱🇨🇫

Officials and sabi people talk say na too early to know whether Wagner go waka comot from Africa, or whether Prigozhin go fit continue to run di organization wey big pass Russia. For now, di group mercenaries still dey show face for checkpoints and other security place for Africa, according to people wey see and media reports. 🤷‍♂️🌍🚧

Serge Djorie, wey be Central African Republic communication minister, no gree talk for interview but him send statement say na Western media dey cause “unnecessary wahala.” 🇨🇫🗣️📺

“Central African Republic need peace, nothing but peace, with people and countries wey ready to give dia true support for the development of its people,” na wetin him talk. 🕊️🤝🇨🇫

Many Western officials and regional authorities no believe say di soft agreement between Prigozhin and Kremlin go fit stand for long time, e fit dey threaten Russia interest for Africa and di stability of their friends. 🌍🤔🤝

“The way we dey see threat of Wagner for Africa go need to change,” na wetin J. Peter Pham, wey be big person for Atlantic Council, talk. “E fit be say di threat go reduce for long term, but for short term, things fit worse. But e clear say change go come.” 🌍🔮📉

This year, na so some document from U.S. intelligence files wey leak come out, e talk say dem dey worry about Wagner plan to create “confederation” of anti-Western states for di continent, where the group don get deal to give paramilitary power in exchange for ogbonge agreement wey give dem control over diamond mines to oil wells. Researchers and U.S. military talk say dem get several thousand Russian mercenaries for di continent. 📁🇺🇸💎⛽

Western officials and sabi people talk say di inner fight for Russia fit give chance for Biden administration and other Western power to take back power for countries where Wagner dey active and prevent di group from get new base.

In Mali, where authorities don move closer to Russia this month when dem ask U.N. peacekeeping force to pack comot, leave Wagner as their main international military partner, officials no talk anything for public since news of Prigozhin wahala break. Leaders no want make dem see dem as if dem dey choose side between Putin and Wagner, di political analyst for Bamako talk, because dem know say dem need Russian support to fight di wahala of Islamist violence. 🇲🇱🇷🇺🕊️

One big question wey dem no fit answer about di peace deal, wey make Prigozhin go exile for Belarus, na whether Putin allow Wagner leader to keep control of his oversea operations.

“Na im be the price?” na wetin Bob Seely, member of British Parliament wey dey work for foreign affairs committee, ask. Di committee don dey investigate Wagner for Africa for di past two years. “Him control over dem na part of the price to let him Wagner people waka comot from Russia and Ukraine?” 🇬🇧🤔🕵️

Even if dem promise Prigozhin say him fit run Wagner outposts, officials talk say dem no sure say Kremlin go finally gree that bargain, part of am na because of Africa economic and geopolitical importance to Moscow. One of the benefits of Wagner to Moscow na say e allow Russia to work for Africa “both officially and unofficially,” sabi people talk, with the group — wey people don accuse of human rights violation — often dey push Kremlin interest but also dey operate with some kind excuse wey go make sense. 🇷🇺🌍🤝

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, for interview on Monday with RT, a Russian state media, talk say “soldiers from Russia” go continue to work with Central African Republic and Mali, but him no mention Wagner by name, him just talk say those countries don “request private military company” when dem “abandoned by French and other Europeans.” 🇷🇺🎙️🌍

Pham, from the Atlantic Council, talk say e no clear whether Wagner go finally need to work more closely with the Russian state or if e go “break into half a dozen mini-Wagners” wey go operate more on their own. But e say wetin clear na say, at least for coming months, Prigozhin “no go focus on his African ventures.” 🤔🇷🇺🌍

For Washington, wey been dey increase effort to counter Wagner for Africa for the past year, this moment fit be chance and may cause dem to recheck policies, according to people wey dey office now and dem wey don comot, plus sabi people. 🇺🇸🌍👀

Biden administration don hold on sanctions wey dem plan to announce soon about Wagner gold business for Central African Republic, according to person wey dey government now and person wey don comot. U.S. officials want to avoid say dem dey support either Wagner or the Kremlin, dem talk. 🇺🇸💰🇨🇫

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller no gree confirm say dem delay sanctions, but say United States always time its sanctions “for maximum impact or maximum effect” and promise say United States go continue to hold di group “accountable.” 🇺🇸⏰👥

Cameron Hudson, a senior associate for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, talk say e go important to get a “clearer understanding” of the relationship going forward between Wagner and the Kremlin, to make sure say Washington policies wey target Wagner — whose head for Mali don already dey subject of U.S. sanctions — no go end up mistakenly help Putin. 🇺🇸🔍🕵️

Even though Hudson talk say some things fit happen wey go get serious negative consequences for African countries and their relationship with the West — like if thousands of Wagner soldiers comot from Ukraine enter the continent — di overall situation “only reinforce the point wey Washington don dey tell African governments: ‘Wagner no bring stability — e only bring chaos.'” 🇺🇸🌍🔥

Effort by Biden administration to protect African countries wey dey struggle from Prigozhin and his top people include travel this past fall of White House, Defense Department and State Department officials to Mauritania, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. 🇺🇸✈️🌍

Di administration dey consider to give governments for that region security assistance, wey dem hope fit draw governments comot from Wagner obit or stop dem from joining in the first place. But e no easy because of recent military takeover for some Sahelian countries, including Burkina Faso, which a senior State Department official talk say Wagner dey already provide some equipment to. 🌍💪🤝

Authorities for Burkina Faso dey look for security assistance to help push back against strong Islamist militant insurgency, but U.S. officials get limit for wetin dem fit give because of the military takeover and dem dey worry say any help fit be use to commit human rights abuse by Burkina Faso authorities. 🇧🇫👮‍♀️🔫

For Central African Republic, the U.S. official describe President Faustin-Archange Touadéra as person wey get “buyer’s remorse” about him decision to work with Wagner because of how the group control over the country resources. For there, dem still dey talk about what kind of support United States fit provide, the official talk. 🇨🇫🤝🇺🇸

But Hudson and other sabi people warn say any such talk need to consider di service wey Wagner dey offer, including direct military support and protection of the government wey dey power. The discussion for some way “na sort of apples and oranges,” Hudson talk. “Wagner dey provide security, and we dey offer textbooks.” 🍏🍊📚👮‍♀️

For interviews for Bamako, Malians talk say dem dey worry about the fallout. Ben Sangare, a 43-year-old consultant, talk am straight: “E go hard,” he say, “for Russia to deal with its own problems and the Sahel region at the same time.” 🇲🇱🧑🤔

Mahamadou Sidibé, 45, talk say even though e seem like say Mali no go take back its request for the U.N. withdrawal, he say the wahala don reduce trust in Wagner and Russia.

“E expose Russia leadership,” he talk, “and e make me see some of Russia flaws.” 🇲🇱🧑🇷🇺💔

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NOW IN ENGLISH

🌍🇷🇺 Prigozhin’s trouble is stirring chaos for Wagner’s African operations

DAKAR, Senegal — The sudden turmoil in Russia is leaving many in Africa scratching their heads. They worry that the Wagner mercenary group, that many of their leaders have leveraged for consolidating power, could weaken or even withdraw, according to regional experts, Western officials, and scholars. 🤔🌍🇷🇺

While global attention is fixed on the unrest in Russia, where President Vladimir Putin’s power is being rattled by the minor rebellion sparked by Wagner’s leader, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, a potential Kremlin crackdown on Wagner would have ripple effects in Africa and the Middle East. Wagner has been instrumental in empowering rogue leaders while furthering Moscow’s international agenda. 💣🌏🇷🇺

In the Central African Republic and Mali, where Wagner’s presence in Africa is most pronounced, chatter in WhatsApp groups and weekend discussions have been dominated by speculation about the potential fallout.

“Everyone is scared,” an anonymous political analyst in Bamako, Mali’s capital, commented, due to the tense situation. “Everyone knows that what happens in Russia will affect us.” 😨🇲🇱🇨🇫

Officials and scholars say it’s too early to know whether Wagner will withdraw from Africa or whether Prigozhin will be able to continue running the organization that outgrew Russia. For now, the group’s mercenaries continue to appear at checkpoints and other security spots in Africa, according to eyewitnesses and media reports. 🤷‍♂️🌍🚧

Serge Djorie, the Central African Republic’s communication minister, declined to comment but issued a statement accusing the Western media of causing “unnecessary panic.” 🇨🇫🗣️📺

“The Central African Republic needs peace, nothing but peace, with individuals and countries ready to provide their genuine support for the development of its people,” he stated. 🕊️🤝🇨🇫

Many Western officials and regional authorities are skeptical that the gentle agreement between Prigozhin and the Kremlin will last, posing a threat to Russia’s interests in Africa and the stability of its allies. 🌍🤔🤝

“How we perceive the threat of Wagner in Africa needs to change,” said J. Peter Pham, a senior figure at the Atlantic Council. “The threat may diminish in the long term, but in the short term, things could worsen. However, it is clear that change is coming.” 🌍🔮📉

Earlier this year, leaked U.S. intelligence files suggested a concern over Wagner’s plans to form a “confederation” of anti-Western states on the continent, where the group has been securing paramilitary deals in exchange for lucrative agreements giving them control over everything from diamond mines to oil wells. Researchers and the U.S. military estimate that there are several thousand Russian mercenaries on the continent. 📁🇺🇸💎⛽

Western officials and scholars suggest that the internal strife in Russia could provide an opportunity for the Biden administration and other Western powers to regain influence in countries where Wagner is active and prevent the group from establishing new bases.

In Mali, where authorities have moved closer to Russia this month by requesting the U.N. peacekeeping force to leave, leaving Wagner as their primary international military partner, officials have remained silent since the news of Prigozhin’s troubles broke. Leaders are avoiding appearing as though they are picking sides between Putin and Wagner, said the political analyst in Bamako, as they are aware they need Russian support to counter the threat of Islamist violence. 🇲🇱🇷🇺🕊️

A lingering question about the peace deal that led to Prigozhin’s exile in Belarus is whether Putin will allow Wagner’s leader to maintain control of his overseas operations.

“Is that the price?” asked Bob Seely, a British Parliament member serving on the foreign affairs committee, which has been investigating Wagner in Africa for the past two years. “Is his control over them part of the price to allow his Wagner operatives to leave Russia and Ukraine?” 🇬🇧🤔🕵️

Even if Prigozhin is promised control over Wagner outposts, officials doubt that the Kremlin will ultimately honor that bargain, in part due to Africa’s economic and geopolitical significance to Moscow. One advantage of Wagner for Moscow is that it allows Russia to operate in Africa “both officially and unofficially,” scholars say, with the group — which has been accused of human rights violations — often promoting Kremlin interests while also operating under some plausible deniability. 🇷🇺🌍🤝

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in an interview on Monday with RT, a Russian state media, said that “soldiers from Russia” will continue to collaborate with the Central African Republic and Mali, but he didn’t mention Wagner by name, only referring to countries that had “requested private military companies” when they were “abandoned by the French and other Europeans.” 🇷🇺🎙️🌍

Pham, from the Atlantic Council, said it’s unclear whether Wagner will eventually have to work more closely with the Russian state or if it will “fragment into half a dozen mini-Wagners” that operate more independently. However, he stated that it’s clear that for the foreseeable future, Prigozhin “will not be focusing on his African ventures.” 🤔🇷🇺🌍

In Washington, which has been ramping up efforts to counter Wagner in Africa over the past year, this moment could present an opportunity and may cause a re-evaluation of policies, according to current and former officials, and experts. 🇺🇸🌍👀

The Biden administration has put on hold sanctions planned to be announced soon concerning Wagner’s gold operations in the Central African Republic, according to a current and a former government official. U.S. officials want to avoid appearing to support either Wagner or the Kremlin, they said. 🇺🇸💰🇨🇫

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller declined to confirm the delay in sanctions but said the United States always times its sanctions “for maximum impact or maximum effect” and promised that the United States will continue to hold the group “accountable.” 🇺🇸⏰👥

Cameron Hudson, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said it would be important to gain a “clearer understanding” of the relationship going forward between Wagner and the Kremlin, to ensure that Washington’s policies targeting Wagner — whose leader in Mali is already the subject of U.S. sanctions — do not inadvertently aid Putin. 🇺🇸🔍🕵️

Despite Hudson’s warning that some events could have severe negative repercussions for African countries and their relations with the West — such as if thousands of Wagner soldiers move from Ukraine to the continent — the overall situation “only reinforces the point that Washington has been telling African governments: ‘Wagner does not bring stability — it brings chaos.'” 🇺🇸🌍🔥

The Biden administration’s efforts to safeguard struggling African countries from Prigozhin and his top lieutenants have included travels last fall by White House, Defense Department, and State Department officials to Mauritania, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. 🇺🇸✈️🌍

The administration is considering offering security assistance to governments in that region, hoping that it could pull governments away from Wagner’s orbit or prevent them from joining in the first place. However, this is not easy due to recent military takeovers in some Sahelian countries, including Burkina Faso, where a senior State Department official said Wagner is already supplying some equipment. 🌍💪🤝

Authorities in Burkina Faso are seeking security assistance to help push back against a strong Islamist militant insurgency, but U.S. officials are limited in what they can provide due to the military takeover and fears that any assistance could be used to commit human rights abuses by Burkina Faso authorities. 🇧🇫👮‍♀️🔫

In the Central African Republic, a U.S. official described President Faustin-Archange Touadéra as having “buyer’s remorse” about his decision to collaborate with Wagner due to the group’s control over the country’s resources. There, discussions are ongoing about what kind of support the United States could provide, the official said. 🇨🇫🤝🇺🇸

But Hudson and other experts caution that any such discussion must take into account the services offered by Wagner, including direct military support and protection of the incumbent government. The debate is somewhat “like comparing apples and oranges,” Hudson said. “Wagner is providing security, and we are offering textbooks.” 🍏🍊📚👮‍♀️

In interviews in Bamako, Malians expressed concern about the fallout. Ben Sangare, a 43-year-old consultant, was frank: “It will be difficult,” he said, “for Russia to deal with its own problems and the Sahel region at the same time.” 🇲🇱🧑🤔

Mahamadou Sidibé, 45, said that although it seems unlikely that Mali will retract its request for the U.N. withdrawal, the scandal has eroded trust in Wagner and Russia.

“It exposes Russia’s leadership,” he said, “and it makes me see some of Russia’s flaws.” 🇲🇱🧑🇷🇺💔